Why the wrong people make it to the top, and the right people do not…
Trait lens
Behavior lens
Process lens
Ambition is “a persistent and generalized striving for success, attainment, and accomplishment”
Ambitious individuals are more likely to emerge as leaders
But are ambitious individuals also more effective in leadership roles?
Self-awareness: Individuals struggle to gauge their own effectiveness
Self-serving biases: Individuals often have inflated self-perceptions
Motivated reasoning: Allure of incentives
H1: Ambition is positively associated with self-rated leader effectiveness
H2: Ambition is not associated with other-rated leader effectiveness
Null Hypothesis: No relationship between ambition and third-party ratings
Alternative Hypothesis: A relationship between ambition and third-party ratings
Positive relationship between ambition and self-ratings of leadership effectiveness
Null relationship between ambition and other-ratings of leadership effectiveness
H2: Null relationship between ambition and other-ratings of leadership effectiveness
H2: Null relationship between ambition and other-ratings of leadership effectiveness
Ambitious individuals are judged as no more effective in leadership roles
However…
Emergence-Effectiveness Gap
“Society tends to attribute authority to those who convey certainty
rather than to those who emphasize uncertainty”
Past research outlines two opposing positions:
How can we reconcile these two perspectives?
Taken together, the competence-signaling and leadership-prototypes accounts suggest…
Hypothesis 1: Leader-expressed uncertainty has a negative effect on leader social influence
Humble leadership
Authentic leadership
Vulnerability and self-disclosure
Positive outcomes of humility, authenticity, vulnerability, and self-disclosure include…
Taken together, the literatures on humility, authenticity, vulnerability, and self-disclosure suggest…
Hypothesis 2: Leader-expressed uncertainty has a positive effect on leader social influence
Miscalibration of confidence harms…
Taken together, too-much-of-a-good thing effects, perils of overconfidence, and preferences for calibration suggest…
Hypothesis 3: Leader-expressed uncertainty has a curvilinear (inverse U-shaped) effect on leader social influence
Meta-analytic estimate of the interpersonal effect of expressed uncertainty
We suggest a non-linear test (H3)
to reconcile these conflicting results
On a 1-9 scale (where 1 = highly uncertain and 9 = highly certain), …
| Uncertainty Condition | Statement |
|---|---|
| -4 | My certainty level is a 9 |
| -3 | My certainty level is an 8 |
| -2 | My certainty level is a 7 |
| -1 | My certainty level is a 6 |
| 0 | My certainty level is a 5 |
| 1 | My certainty level is a 4 |
| 2 | My certainty level is a 3 |
| 3 | My certainty level is a 2 |
| 4 | My certainty level is a 1 |
On a 1-9 scale (where 1 = highly uncertain and 9 = highly certain), …
| Uncertainty Condition | Statement | Median Rating | Mean Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | My certainty level is a 9 | -4 | -3.26 |
| -3 | My certainty level is an 8 | -3 | -2.42 |
| -2 | My certainty level is a 7 | -2 | -1.67 |
| -1 | My certainty level is a 6 | -1 | -0.77 |
| 0 | My certainty level is a 5 | 0 | -0.10 |
| 1 | My certainty level is a 4 | 1 | 1.08 |
| 2 | My certainty level is a 3 | 2 | 1.76 |
| 3 | My certainty level is a 2 | 3 | 2.79 |
| 4 | My certainty level is a 1 | 4 | 2.55 |
| Uncertainty Condition | Statement |
|---|---|
| -4 | I am 99% sure that |
| -3 | I am 90% sure that |
| -2 | I am 80% sure that |
| -1 | I am 60% sure that |
| 0 | I am 50% sure that |
| 1 | I am 40% sure that |
| 2 | I am 20% sure that |
| 3 | I am 10% sure that |
| 4 | I am 1% sure that |
| Uncertainty Condition | Statement | Median Rating | Mean Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | I am 99% sure that | -4 | -3.18 |
| -3 | I am 90% sure that | -3 | -2.47 |
| -2 | I am 80% sure that | -2 | -1.81 |
| -1 | I am 60% sure that | -1 | -0.65 |
| 0 | I am 50% sure that | 0 | 0.08 |
| 1 | I am 40% sure that | 1 | 0.97 |
| 2 | I am 20% sure that | 2 | 1.83 |
| 3 | I am 10% sure that | 3 | 2.24 |
| 4 | I am 1% sure that | 4 | 3.61 |
| Uncertainty Condition | Statement |
|---|---|
| -4 | I am absolutely convinced that |
| -3 | I am convinced that |
| -2 | I am reasonably convinced that |
| -1 | I am partly convinced that |
| 0 | I am examining whether or not |
| 1 | I am reasonably unconvinced whether |
| 2 | I am unconvinced whether or not |
| 3 | I am desperately unconvinced whether |
| 4 | I’m genuinely unsure. I’m desperately unconvinced whether |
| Uncertainty Condition | Statement | Median Rating | Mean Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | I am absolutely convinced that | -4 | -3.30 |
| -3 | I am convinced that | -3 | -2.02 |
| -2 | I am reasonably convinced that | -2 | -1.36 |
| -1 | I am partly convinced that | -1 | -0.22 |
| 0 | I am examining whether or not | 0 | 0.22 |
| 1 | I am reasonably unconvinced whether | 1 | 0.44 |
| 2 | I am unconvinced whether or not | 2 | 1.35 |
| 3 | I am desperately unconvinced whether | 3 | 1.44 |
| 4 | I’m genuinely unsure. I’m desperately unconvinced whether | 4 | 3.02 |
| Uncertainty Condition | Statement | Median Rating | Mean Rating | Lexicon Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | I am absolutely convinced that | -4 | -3.30 | -2.95 |
| -3 | I am convinced that | -3 | -2.02 | -2.38 |
| -2 | I am reasonably convinced that | -2 | -1.36 | -1.55 |
| -1 | I am partly convinced that | -1 | -0.22 | -0.80 |
| 0 | I am examining whether or not | 0 | 0.22 | -0.17 |
| 1 | I am reasonably unconvinced whether | 1 | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| 2 | I am unconvinced whether or not | 2 | 1.35 | 1.08 |
| 3 | I am desperately unconvinced whether | 3 | 1.44 | 1.66 |
| 4 | I’m genuinely unsure. I’m desperately unconvinced whether | 4 | 3.02 | 2.88 |
| Uncertainty Condition | Statement |
|---|---|
| -4 | I am absolutely convinced that |
| -3 | I am convinced that |
| -2 | I am reasonably convinced that |
| -1 | I am generally convinced that |
| 0 | I am examining whether |
| 1 | I am generally unconvinced whether |
| 2 | I am unconvinced whether or not |
| 3 | I am desperately unconvinced whether |
| 4 | I seriously don’t know… I’m desperately unconvinced whether |
| Uncertainty Condition | Statement | Median Rating | Mean Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | I am absolutely convinced that | -4 | -3.30 |
| -3 | I am convinced that | -3 | -2.02 |
| -2 | I am reasonably convinced that | -2 | -1.36 |
| -1 | I am generally convinced that | -1 | -1.18 |
| 0 | I am examining whether | 0 | 0.16 |
| 1 | I am generally unconvinced whether | 1 | 0.24 |
| 2 | I am unconvinced whether or not | 2 | 1.35 |
| 3 | I am desperately unconvinced whether | 3 | 1.44 |
| 4 | I seriously don’t know… I’m desperately unconvinced whether | 4 | 2.93 |
| Uncertainty Condition | Statement | Median Rating | Mean Rating | Lexicon Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | I am absolutely convinced that | -4 | -3.30 | -2.95 |
| -3 | I am convinced that | -3 | -2.02 | -2.38 |
| -2 | I am reasonably convinced that | -2 | -1.36 | -1.55 |
| -1 | I am generally convinced that | -1 | -1.18 | -1.37 |
| 0 | I am examining whether | 0 | 0.16 | -0.83 |
| 1 | I am generally unconvinced whether | 1 | 0.24 | 0.64 |
| 2 | I am unconvinced whether or not | 2 | 1.35 | 1.08 |
| 3 | I am desperately unconvinced whether | 3 | 1.44 | 1.66 |
| 4 | I seriously don’t know… I’m desperately unconvinced whether | 4 | 2.93 | 3.03 |
Social Influence
“The ability of one person to influence the attitudes and behavior of another”